5 articles

Economics

Game theory, industrial policy and the numbers that move nations.

Why the Retail Investor Cannot Solve the Prisoners' Dilemma

The AI buildout is individually rational for every company involved and potentially destructive in aggregate. The index fund owns all of them. That is not diversification. It is a bet that the prisoners collectively produce a tolerable outcome — and that you can identify which cell the warden opens.

4 Oct 20268 min read

Economics

What AI Investment Would Look Like in Peacetime

If AI were a normal capital allocation problem, the Kelly criterion would tell you to invest a fraction of what the hyperscalers are spending. The gap between the two is the war premium. China, constrained by chip sanctions, is not an exception to the war frame — it is the war frame with a smaller arsenal.

4 Oct 20266 min read

Economics

AI Is a $660B Prisoners' Dilemma. Your Index Fund Owns Every Prisoner.

The demand driving the largest infrastructure buildout in corporate history is not organic. It is a subsidy — funded by venture capital and the operating profits of businesses that existed before AI arrived. The subsidy is durable because the stakes are existential. That changes how long the overinvestment can last, and who pays when it stops.

4 Oct 20269 min read

Economics

The EV Revolution Is Repeating the Cotton Revolution, at 10x Speed

The European Union's "Made in Europe" mandate arrived in March 2026, requiring 70% local content for EV incentives. Japan's automakers are losing their largest foreign market. The anxiety is structural. A 200-year-old parallel says the anxiety is also familiar — but the differences are what matter.

4 Oct 202613 min read

Economics

A Tale of Two Cities: What a $500k Salary Actually Buys in New York, London, Hong Kong, and Singapore

A $500,000 salary in the Atlantic finance capitals — New York and London — leaves you with roughly $270,000 after all mandatory deductions. In the Asian hubs — Hong Kong and Singapore — the same gross salary yields roughly $403,000. The $133,000 gap is not a curiosity of marginal rates. It is the product of two entirely different institutional architectures. Over a career, the difference compounds into millions.

4 Oct 202611 min read

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